future mobile technology

-Mobile business relies on complex, competing, if not incompatible, and sometimes unreliable technology. These aspects have therefore often dominated its research assessment. This paper, however, reports from a primarily business application oriented study of the field.

A Delphi study, adapted for qualitative data and scenario building, was carried out across German-speaking Europe during 2002 and 2003. 52 ?experts? participated in the study, giving their considered opinion on what, over the next 5 to 7 years, the dominant mobile technologies, user structures and applications would be. The key response to the technology question was that WIFI would be dominant, with cellular 3G still at least 4 years away. Furthermore, 2.5G will remain in full use as it is adequate for most B2E/B applications for the mobile workforce, which will account for 75% of users. The most likely users of 3G broadband are teenagers — who cannot pay for them.

- Most of us take it for granted that we can check e-mail with our mobile phones. But not long ago, this was a truly disruptive technology that changed how we did business and stayed in touch when we were away from home and the office.

Advanced applications and devices require fast, easily affordable access, but today's 3G cellular data service remains expensive and, with typical speeds between 400Kbit/sec. and 700Kbit/sec., slow. That's about to change, however, and the pace of change will remain rapid into the foreseeable future.